Tropical Storm Vance strengthens far from Baja California Sur; no coastal warnings in effect
The system sits 810 km south of Acapulco and could become a major hurricane this weekend, but its forecast track keeps it more than 800 km from Los Cabos.
Tropical Storm Vance is strengthening in the Mexican Pacific on Thursday, October 22, 2026, but it poses no direct threat to Baja California Sur over the next five days. At 9:00 a.m. Central Time, the storm was 810 km south of Acapulco, Guerrero, and no watches or warnings were in effect for any Mexican coastline, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC).
What the data shows
According to NHC Advisory No. 5, Vance had maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h (60 mph) and a central pressure of 997 millibars. It was crawling northwest at 6 km/h, with tropical-storm-force winds extending about 145 km from the center.
Forecasters expect Vance to become a hurricane tonight and possibly a major hurricane over the weekend. The forecast puts peak intensity on Saturday, October 24, with winds near 195 km/h, followed by gradual weakening from Sunday as wind shear increases.
How close would it get to the peninsula?
The official track places Vance at 17.0°N, 104.7°W on Tuesday, October 27, off the coasts of Jalisco and Colima. Our own calculation using those coordinates puts it more than 800 km from Cabo San Lucas, so no storm-related rain or wind is expected for now in La Paz, Los Cabos, Comondú, Loreto or Mulegé.
The NHC warned that swells generated by the storm will reach the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend. The forecast track shifted northeast compared with the previous update, so it is worth keeping an eye on new advisories.
What to do in Baja California Sur
The eastern Pacific tropical cyclone season officially ends on November 30, and October has been an active month for the region. Even though Vance is not threatening the state today, a track can change within days.
- Follow advisories from Mexico's National Weather Service (SMN) and state and municipal Civil Protection, the official references for alerts in the state.
- If you live near an arroyo or in a low-lying area, know where your municipality's nearest temporary shelter is.
- Check your emergency kit: water, documents in a plastic bag, flashlight, medication and a battery radio.
- If you plan to sail or fish in the southern Pacific, follow Port Authority swell advisories.
The NHC issues new advisories every six hours; the next updates could adjust the track from the weekend onward.
Related
Public Services crews are clearing the San José Viejo ford and the City Club area; municipal Civil Protection is monitoring possible rain on Monday, Oct. 19, and Tuesday, Oct. 20.
The State Civil Protection Council expects the tropical storm to weaken to a depression Friday afternoon; Hurricane Trudy is not expected to affect Baja California Sur.
State Civil Protection expects the system to decay into a tropical depression and remnant low between Friday and Sunday; only the port of La Paz remains open.
The tropical storm has weakened slightly; no watches or warnings are in effect for Baja California Sur, but rain and high surf are still forecast through Saturday.