Vance weakens to a tropical depression about 150 km off the tip of Baja California Sur; no coastal warnings
The system is moving north toward the mouth of the Gulf of California and is expected to dissipate Thursday night or early Friday. Dangerous surf remains the main risk for Los Cabos.
Vance weakened to a tropical depression on the afternoon of Thursday, October 29, and was located about 150 kilometers (95 miles) southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, off Los Cabos, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center's (NHC) 2 p.m. MST advisory. No watches or warnings are in effect for Baja California Sur.
The system has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h), a central pressure of 1008 millibars, and is moving north at 7 mph (11 km/h) toward the entrance of the Gulf of California. It sits about 230 miles northwest of Cabo Corrientes, Jalisco.
Expected to dissipate tonight
The NHC said Vance should become a post-tropical remnant low this evening and dissipate Thursday night or early Friday, October 30. In the meantime, the agency asked interests along Mexico's west-central and northwestern coasts to monitor the system.
The heaviest rain is forecast across the gulf: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) in central and southern Sinaloa, southwestern Durango and northwestern Nayarit, with isolated totals above 5 inches. The advisory does not include a specific rainfall forecast for Baja California Sur.
The risk for Los Cabos: the ocean
The NHC warned that swells generated by Vance are reaching southern Baja California and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. That is the main concern along the tourist corridor and at beaches in Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo.
Earlier this week, the City of Los Cabos kept a black flag on every beach in the municipality because of the rain, which means swimming is prohibited. Before heading to the beach, check with municipal Civil Protection whether the restriction is still in place.
What to do
- Stay out of the water under a black or red flag, even if skies are clear: swells arrive earlier and last longer than the rain.
- Do not cross flowing arroyos (dry riverbeds), on foot or by car, if leftover moisture brings more rain.
- Follow official updates from Mexico's National Weather Service (SMN) and state Civil Protection, which decide school closures and other measures.
- Emergencies: 911.
Vance comes in the final stretch of the Pacific hurricane season, which officially ends November 30. In October, Baja California Sur was already under watch for Hurricane Simon.
Related
Municipal Civil Protection keeps up preventive patrols; in Cabo San Lucas, road repairs continue on Misioneros Ave., the road to La Candelaria and the Jacarandas neighborhood.
The State Civil Protection Council suspended classes at all levels and both shifts; Los Cabos remains under a 72-hour alert for rain and thunderstorms.
Municipal Civil Protection urges residents to secure loose objects and stay out of flowing arroyos.
The storm is about 730 km from Acapulco with 150 km/h winds and moving slowly; swells will reach southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend.