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Forecasters track three low-pressure zones in the Pacific as BCS mixes heat and heavy rain on August 10 Leaks on Aqueduct 3 disrupted water service in northern and eastern La Paz neighborhoods BCS Health Ministry logs 66 heat cases this year and urges stronger hydration measures Forecasters track three low-pressure zones in the Pacific as BCS mixes heat and heavy rain on August 10 Leaks on Aqueduct 3 disrupted water service in northern and eastern La Paz neighborhoods BCS Health Ministry logs 66 heat cases this year and urges stronger hydration measures
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Tropical wave southwest of BCS under watch with 60% cyclone odds over 7 days

The National Hurricane Center places the system several hundred miles off the peninsula's tip, with a 30% chance of development in 48 hours; no coastal watches or warnings are in effect.

By Miguel Díaz Miró · Responsible editor ·
Eastern Pacific outlook map showing an area of possible cyclone development southwest of Baja California Sur.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula carries a 60 percent chance of cyclone development over the next seven days and a 30 percent chance within 48 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) outlook issued this Sunday, August 9.

The agency says the system is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity and could gradually form over the next few days as it moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward across the western portion of the eastern Pacific. Environmental conditions favor gradual development rather than rapid intensification, and for now there are no watches or warnings in effect for land in Baja California Sur.

The general northwestward track, with the system already positioned southwest of the peninsula, calls for monitoring through the week, although a move out to sea remains the most common scenario for this type of disturbance in August.

What to do at this stage (watch, not alarm)

  • No urgent action is needed: this is the time to review, not react. Check that your emergency kit has documents, water, medication, a radio or batteries and a flashlight.
  • Locate your nearest temporary shelter now; the state has 166 shelters ready for this season, according to state Civil Protection.
  • Follow official channels only: BCS Civil Protection, Mexico's National Meteorological Service (SMN) and the municipal governments. Distrust WhatsApp chains with no source.
  • If you live near stream beds in La Paz or Los Cabos, remember the season's basic rule: never cross flowing arroyos, on foot or by vehicle.

The Pacific cyclone season runs from May 15 through November 30, and its most active stretch for Baja California Sur goes from August to October, when most historical impacts have reached the state. Official SMN advisories are updated several times a day whenever a system poses a risk to Mexican coasts; this newsroom will follow the tropical wave's evolution.

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